The development of tin

Quietly break through Shanghai tin long - term rising trend is obvious

2020 domestic non-ferrous plate, Shanghai tin rose 11.26%, the performance is only better than Shanghai lead;Lentni rose 18.73 percent, lagging behind copper, zinc and nickel.

Form, at the end of last year, Luntin quickly compensate, has broken through and stand $20,000 / ton, and Shanghai Tin experienced three waves of repeated, since December last year quietly stand on 150,000 yuan/ton, long-term in the high region running sideways.

On the first night of the year, Shanghai tin index went out of the new high since the listing, the single day also surged above $21000 / ton.

Compared with copper, zinc and other varieties that attach importance to primary mineral resources, tin price fundamental contradiction is more prominent in 2021 under the macro background that commodities are generally optimistic.

Although the upstream global tin supply problems, long-term stagnation of refined tin production capacity, refined tin production passively dependent on mineral supply, but in 2021 tin-related consumption is expected to rebound, once attracting short-term financial attention, it may drive tin prices to break out of the rally.

Global tin consumption forecasts are optimistic

2021 global macro background of consumption is extremely strong, non-ferrous metal tin, tin in the past 10 years the global consumer long-term suppression in 350000-380000 tons, in the past five years the consumption of peak is 2018 tonnes in 381100, 2019, sino-us trade friction, Japan and South Korea trade friction drag on tin consumption, is a 2020 outbreak, tin consumption itself strong rebound tension.

The International Tin Association believes that the absolute amount of global tin consumption in 2021 will exceed that in 2019.However, in the long run, the miniaturization of electronic products to the marginal impact of tin consumption has waned, 2021, 2022, two years is likely to be after the financial crisis, the mainstream of the country's big upgrade new infrastructure and a critical period of construction of informatization, tin consumption growth stronger sustainability, tin consumption clearly toward the 400000 tons of development around the world.

Technically strong performance

Global tin production is highly concentrated, with two companies, Yuntin and Indonesia's Tianma, providing nearly 50% of the world's tin supply.In 2020, the global upstream tin industry will generally reduce production. Due to the shortage of tin supply and the low processing fee, except Yuntin and Tianma, the uncertainty of other capacity and production supply is high.

Due to the influence of the epidemic situation and the weather in mining areas, the amount of tin concentrate imported from Myanmar has decreased by 20% and the grade of imported tin concentrate has also decreased from January to October in 2020. Burma ore still accounts for 94% of China's imports of tin concentrate.

Due to the rapid recovery of semiconductor consumer demand, internal and external tin import profit window opened, from January to October in 2020, China imported 14,454 tons of fine tin, a year-on-year increase of 675.4%, of which Indonesia tin ingot imports accounted for more than 71%.

More than a decade, the global tin resources reserves did not increase, mainly to consume. Although there are tin mining plans in South America, Australia and South Africa, the progress is slow, and the epidemic will interfere with the slow progress of the project.

In 2021, due to the uneven vaccination rate, the consumption recovery in developed economies is more certain than the production stability in resource exporting countries, and the upstream follow-up is likely to lag behind. The macro trading theme may quickly expand the tin price rally.

In addition, tin prices for years of weak oscillation, tin supply is tight, tin smelting capacity has been stagnant for a long time, tin market hidden inventory is not high, but also easy to support tin prices after a breakthrough beyond the expected pull up.

Tin city long-term supply and demand fundamental contradictions intensified, but because of the daily data volume is small, tracking difficulty, it is difficult to clarify the poor supply and demand expectations. Shanghai tin in 150000-157000 yuan/ton line for a long time to encounter obstacles, for many years often appear short - term high, fast fall trend, breakthrough follow-up strategy effect is general.

However, the Shanghai Tin Index has already reached a new high, and while it is difficult to say whether there will be a fundamental breakout in 2021, the long-term uptrend is clear.Technically, the Luntin Oscillation is looking upwards at at least $22,000 / t.