Squeeze risk to increase aluminum price shock is strong

  In September, The price of Shanghai aluminum in the broad shock of the trend, the center of gravity declined slightly.In early September, aluminium prices were slightly weaker amid macro sentiment and inventory growth.With consumption slightly improved, spot prices have improved, leading to a small rebound in futures prices.At the end of September, amid fears abroad, aluminium prices fell sharply, dipping as low as 13, 530, 000 yuan a tonne.Then a sharp rebound, the end of the month basically recovered the decline, as of September 30, the month fell 1.98%.

Geopolitical risks rise macro risks remain

  Recently, global geopolitical risks have increased and risk aversion in the market has increased.

U.S. economic data are mixed, the Federal Reserve has made frequent statements but made no clear actions, the new fiscal stimulus package in the United States has been in twists and turns, it is still uncertain whether the new fiscal stimulus will be implemented before the election.

  The European Central Bank President has repeatedly stressed his determination to stimulate the economy. In addition, the promotion of the EU recovery fund will help stabilize the European economy.

  Overall, global geopolitical tensions are rising and economic recovery is still being shaken by the outbreak.U.S. fiscal stimulus package twists and turns continue to disturb the market, adding to the ONGOING U.S. election, market uncertainty continues to rise.

  According to the data center of the ministry of culture and tourism, National Day has received 637 million domestic tourists during its eight-day holiday, a 79% year-on-year recovery.China's tourism revenue reached 466.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year recovery of 69.9% on a comparable basis.Average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 4.9% compared with last year's "National Day" Golden Week.The country's roads are expected to carry 379 million passengers, with an average daily passenger volume of 47.37 million, down 30.93% from last year's National Day holiday average.

  China's official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5 in September, the seventh consecutive month of expansion, up 0.5 percentage points from August and the most since April against expectations of 51.2.China's Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 53 in September from 53.1, the second highest since February 2011, indicating the sector is still expanding at a steady pace.China's Caixin services PMI came in at 54.8 in September, the fifth straight month of expansion. It is expected to be 54.3, up from 54.For the first time since the outbreak of coVID-19, employment in the manufacturing and service sectors has improved simultaneously, but the strength is not strong and the employment situation is still not overly optimistic.

  The PEOPLE's Bank of China (PBOC) decided to cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio (FX) for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0 from October 12. It will continue to maintain the flexibility of THE RMB exchange rate, stabilize market expectations and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

  Consumption was slightly weaker and inventories rose slightly

The situation of global electrolytic aluminium oversupply has not yet improved, LME inventory is still high, to some extent limited the room for Lunal to rise.Domestically, the most prominent problem in the current futures market is the large amount of positions held in the 2010 contract, but there is not much left in the 2010 contract trading day, which further increases the risk of crowded positions.From the fundamental point of view, low inventory levels give aluminum prices support, determines that aluminum prices in the short term floor will not be too low.But consumer end performance is general, it is difficult to give aluminum prices more rebound momentum.There is a high probability of strong short-term aluminum price shock. After the delivery of the 2010 contract, attention should be paid to the accumulation speed of electrolytic aluminum. If the accumulation speed is fast, pressure will start to be put on the aluminum price.

  On October 9, SMM statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminium social inventory (including the warehouse receipt of the previous period) : in the Shanghai area, 122000 tons, 21.4 tons of wuxi area, hangzhou, 72000 tons of gongyi, district 58000 tons, 195000 tons, the south China sea area of tianjin 46000 tons, 05000 tons of linyi, chongqing, 03000 tons of consumption inventory amounted to 715000 tons of aluminum ingots, from September 30, 60000 tons.

  As of October 9, the total aluminum holdings of the previous session 282,761 lots, up 3,788 lots from 278,973 lots last week, the total aluminum holdings slightly recovered.Macroscopical risk is bigger, fundamental marginal turn weak.The pressure on the supply side is still there, and consumption is slightly weaker. However, the risk of contract squeeze in 2010 is large, and the probability of short-term aluminum price shock is expected to be relatively strong.Shanghai Aluminum 2011 contract turbulence last week, has recovered the early decline, back above the 5-day average.