Granular silicon and heterojunction equipment will be pushed

Silicon fell for the first time this year: PV demand will usher in an upward inflection point

1) Silicon prices fell for the first time since the beginning of the year.  According to the silicon industry chapter, polysilicon prices began to fall.  Compared with the quotation last week, the average transaction price of single crystal resupply this week was 214,200 yuan/ton, down 1.38% month-on-month;  The average transaction price of single crystal compact material was 210,000 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month-on-month;  Single crystal cauliflower transaction average price of 208.2 yuan /kg, down 1% month-on-month.  

2) Since December 2020, the price of silicon material has increased by more than 150%, depressing the end demand of the industry.  Recently, CPIA issued a paper calling for the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. The price of silicon material has slowed down significantly and even started to decline recently.  It is expected that the future silicon prices will form a downward inflection point, into a benign range, photovoltaic industry demand is expected to usher in an upward inflection point.  

3) Photovoltaic will become the absolute force of carbon neutrality.  In 2020, the new global PV installed capacity will reach 130GW, and we estimate that in 2030, the new global PV installed capacity will reach 1200-1400GW. In the next 10 years, the new global PV installed capacity will grow by about 10 times, and the CAGR will reach 25%-27%.

Photovoltaic/PV equipment: Embrace three new technologies - granular silicon, heterojunction and large size  

1. Granular silicon: 

Advantages gradually, industrialization process will speed up, is expected to become a new generation of silicon material technology, power photovoltaic cost reduction.

1) Demand side: In May, JA announced to purchase nearly 150,000 tons of specialized granular silicon. The large-scale purchase of 10,000 tons indicates that granular silicon has been recognized by the market, marking the beginning of large-scale industrialization.  Before that, zhonghuan, longji have signed a grain silicon long order procurement contract with GCL.  At present, Shanghai CNC, JA, Central, Longji and other mainstream wafer manufacturers have tried granular silicon, the doping ratio has been significantly increased compared with the previous.  The quality parameters are stable and the cost of drawing crystal is reduced by using granular silicon material in mass production of N-type crystal bar.  

2) Supply side: At present, GCL-Poly is planning to produce 500,000 tons of granular silicon in Xuzhou, Leshan and Inner Mongolia.  Among them, SMC and GCL-Poly jointly constructed 300,000 tons, and SMC took a 35% stake in the first phase of the 60,000-ton granular silicon project, which will strongly promote the industrialization of granular silicon.  We expect that the 300,000 tons of particulate silicon project of Shanghai CNC and GCL-Poly will go smoothly.  China's particulate silicon capacity is expected to reach 100,000-200,000 tons in 2022 and will accelerate in the future.  In June, GCL-Poly Particulate Silicon Technology Application Demonstration Project was officially put into operation, which will accelerate the industrialization and mass production of granular silicon, and it is expected that the market's acceptance of granular silicon will accelerate.  

2. Hexojunction: 

Recently, a major breakthrough has been made in such projects as VLAS and Tongway, and large-scale application is approaching. CAGR of the industry will exceed 80% in the next five years.

1) PV heteropairing is the "future star" of PV, which is of great importance to reduce the cost of PV per kilowatt hour and to achieve "carbon neutrality" by promoting it on a large scale around the world.  In the future, it will replace PERC to become the third generation mainstream application technology of photovoltaic cells.  

2) The industry will be a leader with a market value of over 100 billion yuan: it is estimated that the market space of HJT equipment is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 80% in 5 years.  Under the assumption of 20% net interest rate and 25 times PE, the market value of HJT equipment industry is 200 billion yuan.  It is expected that the industry leading market share is expected to exceed 50%, the future is expected to reach 100 billion level market value.  HJT equipment "a hundred flowers bloom", the coexistence of multiple technical routes.  

3.  "Large size" : 

"cost reduction and efficiency increase" brings a new round of iteration requirements, and the equipment opens an era of large size update and iteration.

Large size has the advantage of "cost reduction and efficiency increase".  We judge that large size (210/182) will become the mainstream of the market in 2021 and will occupy more than 90% of the market share in 2022.  The demand for new equipment in the market is basically implemented in accordance with the downward compatibility standard of 210, which will gradually replace the existing equipment.  Long crystal furnace, slicer, battery, component equipment manufacturers will benefit significantly.