Prospects for 2021 PV market

December 18, 2010, the central economic work put forward eight key tasks in 2021, which pointed out: "do a good job of carbon peak, carbon neutral work. China aims to peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 ".

A number of provinces and cities, ministries and commissions for this task, has been in succession intensive voice, in the development of new energy and other aspects of the deployment. As of January 4, 2021, 42 provinces and cities have proposed to reach the peak in 2025.

On January 5, the Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection (MEP) released the Measures for the Administration of Carbon Emission Trading (Trial), which will take effect on February 1.

In recent years, China's photovoltaic market has developed rapidly, from the upstream manufacturing capacity expansion and price decline;The cost electricity price of downstream power stations in most provinces in China has dropped below the benchmark electricity price for desulfurization.

Photovoltaic application scenarios continue to expand, and constantly close to life.

The expansion trend of photovoltaic power station is obvious. Although the epidemic in 2020 has brought many negative effects on the manufacturing and construction of the photovoltaic industry in the short term, according to the latest "Global Carbon Budget 2020" report, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil energy have been reduced by 2.4 billion tons, and the global carbon emissions in 2020 have been reduced by 7% compared with that in 2019.

Based on the double benefits of policy and manufacturing cost reduction, it can be predicted that most provinces and municipalities and power generation enterprises will clarify their targets in succession by the end of the first quarter of 2021.

China's carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak two to three years earlier than 2030. After several years of flat carbon trading market, with the implementation of indicators among enterprises and provinces and cities, carbon trading will usher in explosive growth in 2021, and a market of 100 billion yuan will also be opened.

The proportion of GW class PV base in domestic PV installed capacity is increasing. In the western region, will be the future large-scale power generation central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, the main carbon peak of the main development target.

In order to reach the target of carbon peak, some land-strapped provinces will continuously actively or passively investigate and adjust the land application model and the standard of land acquisition fee.

At the same time, it will set the stage for carbon neutrality by 2060.The non-technical disputes of photovoltaic modules will gradually fade in the second half of 2020, and new technology breakthroughs will remain the main way for enterprises to break out of the circle in the next two to three years. 

Before that, the market share of head module manufacturers will continue to increase.

In 2020, major domestic component manufacturers will have a deep understanding of the second task in the eight key areas: "Enhance the autonomous and controllable ability of the industrial chain and supply chain".

At the beginning of 2021, we have seen some manufacturers sign strategic cooperation agreements with corresponding enterprises.

It can be expected that the price of some materials will quickly return to rationality with the determination of component manufacturers and the market. The year 2020 is an extraordinary start and persistence.

When PV people walk and look up, they gradually deepen their understanding of it and their understanding of the future. It may not be possible to absorb the unpredictable future all at once, but at least with the help of policies and pressures.The future development will be more clear.