Macro disturbance frequent non - ferrous markets where to go

  This week, domestic commodities, especially non-ferrous markets continue to rise more or less.As of Wednesday, Shanghai copper futures main contract 2011 closed at 52,150 yuan/ton, up 1.48%.Shanghai aluminum futures main contract 2011 closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, down 0.34%.The main contract of Shanghai Zinc in 2011 ended at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 2.28%.Shanghai Nickel main contract 2012 closed at 121730 yuan/ton, up 1.8%.

  According to market analysis, the risk appetite of the financial market fluctuates rapidly with the coVID-19 epidemic, the US economic stimulus measures and the political situation in the recent stage. The global asset prices, especially the stock market and commodity prices, fluctuate greatly in both directions. The continued rebound is more hoped on the prospect of the coVID-19 vaccine and the introduction of a new round of economic stimulus measures as soon as possible.At present, the nonferrous market high oscillation under the macro factors is waiting for the macro trend direction.

  "In this year's magnificent market trend of the non-ferrous market, macro disturbance has always been implemented as the leading factor."In the view of Jinrui Futures nonferrous metal researcher Gao Weihong, the current dominant nonferrous metal market trend of macro factors is the actual situation of the global economic recovery, behind the concern is the performance of economic data and macro policy changes.Of course, in the current special context, coVID-19 development and marginal changes remain critical.

  From global macroeconomic level, non-ferrous, an analyst at citic built for futures Zhang Weixin said that in the second half of 2019 should be the starting point of the global economy a new upward cycle, in theory, including non-ferrous metals, commodities are expected to usher in a rally, but the sudden outbreak of the new champions league in 2020 interrupted by the global economic recovery, also had obvious effects on the non-ferrous market movements.

  For now, he believes the global economy is in a state of sustained recovery from the dark days after the outbreak hit, and is likely to return to the upward trend that began in the second half of 2019.Referring to Merrill Lynch clock investment cycle, economic recovery is followed by a boom, which is the best time for commodities to rise, which is also an important source of support for non-ferrous prices, especially copper prices.At the same time, we can also see that there are many uncertainties affecting the global economic recovery. These factors include the COVID-19 epidemic, the us election and the game of the economic stimulus bill, as well as the sustainability of China's economic recovery and the degree of recovery.

  First, in terms of the COVID-19 epidemic.Currently, Europe is experiencing a serious second outbreak, and people's lack of cooperation with the government's epidemic prevention measures, making it increasingly difficult to prevent the epidemic, Zhang said.A further outbreak in Europe could derail the recovery of one of the world's most important economies and ultimately drag down the global economic recovery.And as winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, many parts of the world are at risk of a second outbreak, which will also make optimism cautious.

  Second, look to the United States.As November approaches, he says, the direction of the U.S. election will be the focus of global attention.Although polls show Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the more likely candidate, the uncertainty will not be resolved until the last minute.Moreover, whether Mr Trump wins or Mr Biden wins, markets need to re-examine where the world's largest economy will go next.Such uncertainty is anathema to markets, which should trade cautiously ahead of election results.

  In the context of the election, Gao argues, the US fiscal stimulus bill is closely linked to it.Due to the us government's negative attitude towards epidemic control, fiscal policy has become an important factor to support market confidence."Although the election itself is unlikely to have a trend impact on the non-ferrous market, the timing and support for the new economic stimulus bill will directly disturb the market trend."He said.

  Zhang weixin said the new law is more or less political, which makes the uncertainty of the new law increased at such a critical time when the election is approaching.Of course, this uncertainty mainly focuses on the terms of the content and launch time, the final launch is basically certain.After some time in the game, the market impact of the current stalemate on the timing of the launch has weakened, and the possibility of launch before the election is still rising.

  In his view, the introduction of the new U.S. stimulus bill is a boon for copper prices.On the one hand, it would boost the U.S. economy, which would be good for the global recovery, which would certainly be good for commodity prices.On the other hand, it means there will be more dollars in the market, depreciation pressure on the dollar will rise, and inflation expectations will rise further, which is also positive for copper prices.

  Finally, as the current global economic recovery leader, The direction of China's economy is also affecting the non-ferrous market trend can not be ignored a link.In copper, for example, China accounts for almost half of global copper consumption. If China's economic recovery continues, the underlying pattern for future copper demand will stabilize, and copper prices will gain support and even upside.