Light rare earth prices rise

From October 26 to October 30, the market price and trading volume of rare earths showed a good trend on the whole. The market price of all mainstream products maintained a steady rise, the number of inquiries increased, and the spot supply side of the market was slightly tight.At the same time, heavy rare earth group resumed dysprosium oxide purchase to support the rising market price trend of heavy rare earth, and inevitably triggered speculation in the industry.

From October 26 to October 30, the spot circulation shortage of praseodymium oxide became the hottest topic. Based on the consensus of long-term overproduction of praseodymium, this phenomenon caused more doubts to metal and magnetic material enterprises.In the expectation of tight supply, rare earth separation enterprises bid up the quotation, and metal enterprises raised the purchase price due to the difficulty in asking for goods. The downstream of rare earth industry was stimulated by the price rise, and decided to book the futures metals in late November and early December, and the chain reaction continuously boosted the rise of praseodymium products.Compared with October 19 ~ October 23, magnetic material buyers were more active, and as of October 23, most metal enterprises reported that there was little stock of metal praseodymium left. In addition to large metal factories, some small factories also said that their production schedule was tight.

The situation of tight flow of praseodymium oxide is very similar to the rise of Praseodymium oxide in August. The direct reason is that leading enterprises keep purchasing praseodymium oxide and at the same time tighten the shipment properly to gradually reduce the flow of praseodymium oxide. Even if there is no significant increase in downstream demand, it can still maintain a steady trend or rise."Hunger marketing" can indeed keep the trend improving for some time, but the downstream digestion capacity is difficult to keep pace with the inventory backlog. Unless such additional digestion occurs, the risk of relying solely on the upstream unified tightening will surely continue to accumulate, and the rally in late August may be repeated.

Dysprosium oxide (DYSprosium oxide), a heavy rare earth, was significantly raised in market prices this week, but the overall surplus of dysprosium oxide was particularly attributable to praseodymium, and the current market rise was also directly driven by upstream purchases. However, due to the myanmar election, the supply of dysprosium has a certain degree of contraction trend, which is actually supported by supply and demand.The move has revived speculation and expectations in the industry, but so far no credible information has emerged.

As of October 30, the main rare-earth oxide products in the domestic market were as follows: the market price of praseodymium oxide (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) was 333,000 yuan/ton ~ 336,000 yuan/ton;Dysprosium oxide market quotation (ex-factory including tax, spot exchange) is 1.68 million yuan/ton ~ 1.7 million yuan/ton;Terbium oxide market quotation (ex-factory tax, cash exchange) is 4.85 million yuan/ton ~ 4.9 million yuan/ton;Gadolinium oxide market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 172,000 yuan/ton ~ 175,000 yuan/ton;Holmium oxide market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 423,000 yuan/ton ~ 428,000 yuan/ton.

As of October 30, the quotation of some rare earth metal products in the domestic market is respectively: the market quotation of metal praseodymium (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is RMB 417,000 yuan/ton ~ RMB 422,000 yuan/ton;The market quotation of dysprosium iron (ex-factory including tax, spot exchange) is 1.67 million yuan ~ 1.69 million yuan/ton.Metal terbium market quotation (ex-factory tax, spot exchange) is 6.2 million yuan/ton ~ 6.25 million yuan/ton;Gadolinium iron market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 172,000 yuan/ton ~ 175,000 yuan/ton;Holmium iron market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is RMB 434,000 / ton ~ RMB 439,000 / ton.

For the market later trend, Rui Dao metal net analysts forecast: no matter whether the rise in the market price of praseodymium is understood in the middle and lower reaches, the current rare earth market trend is still unlikely to come down, and the market next week is still a small increase in the space is likely to continue to appear.In the medium and long term, there is a certain risk of praseodymium in mid-to-late November, and the cyclical gap of downstream procurement will appear as the rise of praseodymium slows down, and then the risk factors will increase.

November for dysprosium, terbium and sensitive time, induce the rare earth group resume buying motives are unclear, but good for the industry cannot be ignored, for now, dysprosium, terbium rose by a more rational, or for good matting, or pure price stability, good in the short term is difficult to be born, follow-up is expected to moderate to give priority to.