"A rising tide lifts all boats" continued metal prices have strong support

    From overseas policy trends, given the amount of "day" the limitation of government debt repayment pressure, the fed expected yield curve control heat, in the case of the economic outlook is not seen obviously improved, the next Treasury rates big probability is given priority to with low volatility, and market inflation expectations rise, will become the main driving force lower real interest rates.It is now widely expected that the Fed will adjust its inflation target in its subsequent review of its monetary policy framework to adjust the 2 per cent inflation target to average inflation, which simply means allowing inflation to rise above 2 per cent for a period of time to compensate for earlier low inflation and keep average inflation around 2 per cent.  

    Data show that since this year, the global fiscal stimulus exceeds $10 trillion, among them, the United States has launched several rounds of massive fiscal stimulus, this year the us fiscal deficit new highs, only in June the U.S. budget gap of $864 billion, nearly 2019 full-year deficit for the fiscal year, and so far in the first 10 months of fiscal 2020, the U.S. government's budget deficit reached $2.8 trillion, not only refresh the historical records, is more than three times as much in fiscal 2019.As a result of the Federal Reserve's "helicopter drop of money", it is estimated that the US fiscal deficit for the whole year may reach 3.8 trillion US dollars, accounting for 20% of GDP. This has also led to the rise of global inflation expectations and the weakening trend of the US dollar index, and stimulated the strength of various asset prices such as precious metals and non-ferrous metals.

    Since August, although the fed super trillions of fiscal stimulus has failed to fall to the ground, as well as Chinese credit agency in July data than expected short-term factors, such as financial market concerns over liquidity environment marginal changes occur, superposition of breaking news, such as a new global champions league first vaccine registry that makes the market worries governments and central Banks might "water" ahead of the return to normal policy support, long capital flight, once caused the stock market and commodity most asset prices fell.However, as the global consciousness in the global economy from the bottom reply, still heavily dependent on policy hedge, and the lack of phase iii clinical experiments verify the effectiveness of the world's first new vaccine is just a "place of satellite", in the face of "shadow" and big game in the second half of the overseas outbreak persistent disturbances, the world's major economic huge uncertainty, are reversed transmission governments to continue to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy, and the strength of active fiscal policy to stabilize the economy and people's livelihood, and national or active or passive currency more and higher budget deficits, and exacerbate devaluation pressure, market inflation expectations rise,More room for a further rally in most asset prices, such as equities and commodities.

    From the perspective of domestic hot policy topics, since the first proposal of a new development pattern with domestic major cycles as the main body and both domestic and international cycles promoting each other, the government has continuously strengthened the requirement of stable growth and long-term balance against risks.Has the ministry also said in the second half will strive to expand effective demand, the stability of traditional commodities such as car consumption, speed up the public sphere of new energy vehicle replacement, developing new energy car to the countryside activities, speed up the development of new forms of consumption, promote the depth of the Internet and all kinds of consumption forms, actively expand the effective investment, promote manufacturing major projects to speed up the ground, we will accelerate the new infrastructure, 5 g remarks to verify the real economy in our country the trend of expanding domestic demand, stabilizing market to speed up the transformation and upgrading, and infrastructure such as domestic demand is expected to consumption subject expanded metals industry into a new bright spot,And short - term over the seasonal low - season supply and demand margin weak fundamental environment.

    It is expected that in the financial market "rising tide" liquidity market has not reversed, the price of non-ferrous metals and precious metals have further room for upward, short - term to meet the short - most, pay attention to risk control appropriate control exposure.