Rare earth market price small rebound oligarch effect highlights

From March 15 to March 19, the price trend of rare earth market stabilized rapidly, and the prices of major products rebounded slightly in the market. Low-price supplies were basically cleared out in the market, and the remaining scattered supplies were quickly stopped due to the fear of oversupply. The rare earth industry had a strong willingness to support prices and frequently tested them.However, the acceptance of the downstream enterprises in the rare earth industry is obviously lagging behind, and the metal end is facing the dual pressure of cost sales. The market transaction is still not as good as before, and the small rebound shock is still not enough to stimulate the enthusiasm of the downstream procurement.

From the light rare earth representative products - praseodymium and neodymium market point of view, with the praseodymium market prices quickly stabilized and rising momentum, the downstream began to replenish in succession, but because of the increase and increase speed is not obvious, the downstream replenishment remains cautious restraint.Metal plant to maintain the corresponding quotation, but to the end of this week, metal product price increase is obviously blocked, and praseodymium oxide and neodymium still have further pull up trend, metal plant test behavior began to become cautious, at the same time, because of the cost is difficult to correspond, oxide procurement has contracted.

March 15 ~ March 19, praseodymium product quotation range has narrowed, specific performance in individual manufacturers low quotation moved up substantially, the mainstream transaction price rose slightly, high quotation temporarily stable.This week, the mainstream praseodymium enterprise external quotation basically maintained at the original high level, but the downstream enterprise feedback due to the large factory quotation high, this week only a small amount of replenishment, mostly wait-and-see, priority consumption of existing inventory.

In terms of heavy rare earth, dysprosium and terbium products in the overall range of market prices rose, while gadolinium and holmium products in the range of market prices fell to a certain extent.Heavy rare earth enterprises control the market division of labor, and the intensity of this week slightly differentiated.Ganzhou, for dysprosium oxide for 3.05 million yuan/ton (acceptance) acquisition;Hunan is buying terbium oxide for 9.9 million yuan per ton (cash).Compared to last week, dysprosium oxide market support strength, while terbium oxide strength has been reduced (last week bought at 9.98 million yuan/ton acceptance).

The low supply of dysprosium oxide and terbium have been completely cleared out this week, but in terms of the range, the market price of dysprosium oxide has increased more obviously, and the high price has broken through.Terbium oxide only pulls up in the low position, but remains weak in the face of the high limit.Downstream buy up dysprosium iron, dysprosium products transaction price and volume have warmed.The mainstream factory terbium oxide quotation still maintains the original high level, the downstream receiving goods still exists price pressure and restraint.

As of March 19, the main price of rare earth oxide products in the domestic market are: the market price of praseodymium oxide (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 575,000 yuan/ton ~ 580,000 yuan/ton;The market quotation of neodymium oxide (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 680,000 yuan/ton ~ 685,000 yuan/ton;Dysprosium oxide market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 2.98 million yuan/ton ~ 3.03 million yuan/ton;The market quotation of terbium oxide (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 9.88 million yuan/ton ~ 9.95 million yuan/ton;Gadolinium oxide market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 230,000 yuan/ton ~ 235,000 yuan/ton;Holmium oxide market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 960,000 yuan/ton ~ 980,000 yuan/ton.

As of March 19, the quotation of some rare earth metal products in the domestic market is: the market quotation of praseodymium metal (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 715,000 yuan/ton ~ 720,000 yuan/ton;The market quotation of neodymium (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 850,000 yuan/ton ~ 855,000 yuan/ton;Dysprosium iron market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 2.96 million yuan/ton ~3 million yuan/ton;The market quotation of metal terbium (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 12.45 million yuan/ton ~ 12.55 million yuan/ton;Gadolinium iron market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 230,000 yuan/ton ~ 235,000 yuan/ton;Holmium iron market quotation (ex-factory tax included, spot exchange) is 980,000 yuan/ton ~1 million yuan/ton.

In view of the late trend of rare earth market, Ruidao metal net analysts predicted that the temporary small increase in the market price of rare earth products did not significantly improve the procurement environment, the upstream and downstream is still in the stage of deadlock, and last week's deadlock situation has been transmitted from the downstream to the middle end of the metal.

The analyst said the small increase in the market price of praseodymium is more due to the centralization and unification of the upstream, and is created at the cost of the loss of current sales volume of major rare earth industry manufacturers. The increase in the market price of heavy rare earth is also heavily dependent on the capital paid by major rare earth industry enterprises.At present, the upstream production enterprises in the rare earth industry have no risk of production scheduling under the support of futures orders, but the downstream has begun to tighten the wait and see, and there are still risks in the medium and long term.

At present, the operating rate of rare earth metal factories is generally high. Due to equipment restrictions, metal enterprises cannot flexibly adjust the output. Although temporarily due to cost problems, the replenishment of praseodymium oxide storage slows down, but the online raw material consumption speed cannot be reduced.Based on the results of the current upstream and downstream stalemate, the lower probability of praseodymium and neodymium may appear: praseodymium oxide rise gradually slowed down and even stable, magnetic material enterprises with the appropriate increase in inventory consumption psychological bottom line just need to replenishment, praseodymium metal part of the trial increase, but the overall price level unchanged.

In the field of heavy rare earth, the oligarchic effect should be taken into account at present. Dysprosium oxide still fails to meet the industry's expectations, and there is still room for the capital capacity of major enterprises in the rare earth industry to further increase. However, for a surplus product, the pressure of dysprosium oxide to be further controlled is increasing, and the space is expected to gradually narrow.Terbium oxide is unlikely to break through the 10 million yuan/ton bottleneck in a short time, which is consistent with the decrease in the acquisition intensity of heavy rare earth groups. However, the main enterprises in the rare earth industry currently have an obvious purpose of division of labor strategy, that is, dysprosium and terbium supplement each other, the principle of stability, and try their best to BB0 before the opportunity (the possibility of national storage) comes.