The outbreak pushed alumina prices up slightly

Domestic alumina prices rose slightly this week.

The average price of Shanxi by region is 2359 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than last weekend;Henan average price of 2,351 yuan/ton, unchanged from last weekend;Shandong average price of 2345 yuan/ton, the same as last weekend;Guangxi average price of 2,290 yuan/ton, the same as last weekend;Guizhou average price of 2,290 yuan/ton, the same as last weekend;The average price in Inner Mongolia is 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from last weekend.

The average spot price of ATK alumina is 2327 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton over the weekend.

Foreign alumina prices this week to maintain a small rise trend, this weekend the price to 306.5 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton over the weekend, the current price is equivalent to the RMB CIF price of 2489 yuan/ton, higher than the domestic average spot price of alumina 162 yuan/ton.Domestic and foreign price difference is not conducive to alumina imports.

As winter temperatures drop, the outbreak is spreading in many parts of China. The whole area of Gaocheng District in Shijiazhuang has been upgraded to a high-risk area, and the epidemic prevention and control in Hebei has been upgraded.

Affected by this, a number of expressways in Hebei Province to implement vehicle return, closure and other temporary control measures. At the same time, Shanxi part of the highway control measures.

Vehicles from Shandong province transporting alumina to Inner Mongolia via Hebei and Shanxi provinces have been blocked.In addition, the goods were prepared before the Spring Festival, and the inquiry in the northern region was positive and the activity increased this week. 

The transaction price of alumina rose to 2350-2360 yuan/ton from the previous 2330-2350 yuan/ton.And the southern region alumina market performance is relatively calm, the price remains the same.

On January 6, an Australian order of 30,000 tons of alumina was concluded at the price of $306 / ton (FOB) for shipment at the end of January.Although the current domestic and foreign alumina price difference is not conducive to imports, but because the LME aluminum price is maintained at more than $2000 / ton, the ratio of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is only 15%, at a low level.

According to the statistics of Antaike, the current national alumina production capacity is 89.15 million tons/year. Guangxi VOLLENG Aluminum's second phase production line of 1 million tons/year has been put into production, and the second phase production line of 2 million tons/year has basically reached production. Weiqiao zhanhua 1 million tons/year alumina capacity has reachedproduction.

Wuzhengdao alumina production capacity of 1 million tons/year began to ignite on December 10th and resumed production. The roasting furnace was put into operation on December 25th, and the current output has been achieved.Under the influence of heavy pollution weather control in heating season, the domestic alumina utilization rate decreased to 82.0% in December 2020, down 1.2 percentage points month-on-month.

In 2021, with the improvement of weather conditions and the lifting of heavy pollution weather control restrictions in northern China, alumina production will increase slightly.

Influenced by the epidemic, transportation restrictions in northern China became the main factor affecting the alumina price during the period. At the same time, the current domestic and foreign price difference is not conducive to the arbitrage of alumina imports, the decline of alumina imports will also reduce the pressure on domestic supply.

From the cost point of view, due to the thermal coal price rise, alumina cost recently increased slightly, forming a certain support for the price.It is expected that next week domestic alumina prices will be stable in the upward trend.