Electrolytic aluminum: layout reconstruction under the "ceiling"

          Since the 18th national congress of the communist party of China, the state has carried out a new round of macro-control on the electrolytic aluminum industry. Marked by《the Guidelines of the state council on resolving the serious problem of overcapacity》, The state has introduced a series of control policies, especially the implementation of 《The notice on the work plan of the illegal project of cleaning up and rectifying the electrolytic aluminum industry》（Document no. 656 [2017] of China national development industry, referred to as document no. 656）and《A notice on the implementation measures for capacity replacement in some industries with serious overcapacity was issued》（Ministry of industry and information technology industry [2015] document no. 127, referred to as "document no. 127"）, the disorderly expansion of electrolytic aluminum has been fundamentally controlled. The national development and reform commission, the ministry of industry and information technology, and other national ministries and commissions as well as relevant provinces (autonomous regions) have high political standing and resolutely implement policies. And capacity replacement is equivalent replacement or reduction replacement, In a word, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum can only be reduced but not increased -- the comprehensive effect of a number of policies contributed to the formation of the "ceiling" of the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum.

          However, the formation of the "ceiling" of total capacity does not mean that the development of electrolytic aluminum will be "calm" from now on. On the contrary, in the total capacity ceiling has not been breached in the "stable", part of the capacity has quietly occurred a "universe shift". Capacity in areas with high electricity prices or in environmentally sensitive areas is shut down, and capacity indicators are replaced with new ones where costs are more competitive and environmental pressures are lower. There are two places to become the most popular place to undertake the electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement index, one is yunnan, the other is guangxi.

          Hydropower resources in yunnan province can be developed installed capacity of about 90 million kilowatts, second only to sichuan, ranked second in the country. In 2018, hydropower generation in yunnan accounted for 65% of the total. Hydropower aluminum is not only low cost, and emission reduction effect is good, the production of a ton of hydropower aluminum, than thermal aluminum to reduce carbon emissions of more than 10 tons, reduce the amount of dust more than 4 tons. therefore, yunnan's "hydropower and aluminum" model is regarded as the most consistent with the green development concept model and is sought after by the capital. Yunnan province correctly grasped the opportunity, gathered the efforts of the whole province, carried out strategic layout for the clustering of "deep processing of hydropower and aluminum", turned more "burning aluminum" (coal-electricity aluminum) into "boiling aluminum" (hydropower and aluminum), and created a very attractive investment and business environment like a magnetic field. Such as accelerating the construction of infrastructure and related supporting facilities; For example, the establishment of the corresponding aluminum industry development fund to provide support and guarantee for the development of the green hydropower aluminum industry; Such as actively transforming government functions and improving service standards and capabilities, Instead of making enterprises turn to the government for help, we should let the government take the initiative to find and solve difficulties, Like the big gift package from the yunnan provincial government--- ensure that the electricity charges for aluminum production lines do not exceed 0.25 yuan per kilowatt-hour for the first five years, 0.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour for the tenth year, and so on. In the next two to three years, With the construction and production of about 4.2 million tons of capacity of chinalco, 2.03 million tons of capacity of weiqiao group, 900,000 tons of capacity of shenhuo group and 700,000 tons of capacity of its Asia group, Yunnan's hydropower and aluminum capacity will reach 8 million tons.

          Guangxi zhuang autonomous region has the sixth largest hydropower capacity in China, with a total capacity of 14.2 million kw. Yunnan has jinsha river and guangxi has hongshui river. Although the total amount of hydropower resources is less than yunnan, guangxi has more advantages than yunnan for the development of aluminum industry. The first is the advantage of bauxite resources. Guangxi has identified total reserves of bauxite of 684 million tons, accounting for 24% of the national total, with prospective reserves of more than 1 billion tons, In particular, guangxi bauxite is characterized by high grade, shallow burial, easy mining and low alumina production cost, which is the home of other bauxite unparalleled. and Guangxi is next to Vietnam, which has the fourth largest bauxite reserves in the world and higher ore quality. Therefore, the development of aluminum industry in guangxi, the supply of sufficient, high grade, low cost bauxite resources is the biggest bright spot. The second is market advantage.Guangxi is close to the consumption market of aluminum in southern China, and the transportation distance is short. Aluminum products can be transported to the guangdong-hong kong-macao greater bay area by water with the lowest cost. The third is the advantage of going to sea. Guangxi has convenient access to the sea, fangcheng port, qinzhou port, beihai port and other ports in the beibu gulf, is the most convenient access to the sea from China's hinterland to asean countries. It is an inevitable trend for guangxi to become a hot investment destination for electrolytic aluminum because of the advantages of both the ore resources and the product market, and the hydropower resources, which rank the sixth in China.

          The 13th five-year plan has come to an end, The 14th five-year plan has been drawn up. Under the restriction of the two policies of "document no. 656" and "document no. 127", the upper limit of electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been stabilized, and the new production capacity can only be achieved through index replacement. Under the great logic of the dual hard constraint of cost pressure and environmental pressure, the great transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is inevitable, and the new production capacity map of electrolytic aluminum in China is being reconstructed.